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The market stayed quiet on Friday, but the fighting didn’t: The earliest re-pricing on Monday may not be about chips
If you only look at Friday’s close, AI is still the star of the market.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen more than 20% from its peak, while Taiwan stocks, Japan stocks, and U.S. tech shares all dropped together. Everyone is asking when semiconductors will finally stabilize.
But this weekend, the center of risk shifted one step further toward the Middle East.
The U.S. military said Sunday it carried out another airstrike on Iran. Before the action, Iran attacked a

US stock close gives the answer: the selloff isn’t over yet, but it’s also not turning into an all-out freefall
After the Asia markets closed yesterday, two real questions remained.
First, can US stocks absorb the selling pressure in semiconductors?
Second, will this pullback widen—from chip stocks—to make the entire market stall out together?
The answer is clearer now.
US stocks haven’t stopped falling. The S&P 500 is down 1.01%, the Nasdaq is down 1.40%, the Dow is down 0.77%, and all three major indexes also closed in the red for the week.
But it also wasn’t a straight drop all the way into

Taiwan stocks fell by 2,953 points. What really matters isn’t the record—it’s whether the selling pressure has changed its nature.
This morning, when the Taiwan market was still down by around 4%, it looked more like a group digestion after the Nasdaq’s heavy selloff, with Asian semiconductor stocks absorbing elevated expectations together.
By the close, there’s one more layer you need to look at.
Taiwan stocks finished down 2,953.71 points to close at 42,671.27 points, a decline of 6.47%, marking the largest single-day point drop on record.
First, a reminder: this is the largest number of poi

Global capital is repricing AI and semiconductors again.
Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.29%, the Nasdaq fell 1.47%, and TSMC’s ADR also fell 2.32%. This wave of selling pressure is feeding back into Asia today. In the intraday session, the Taiwan stock market briefly dropped to around 43,643 points, down about 4.3% from the previous day’s close; the Nikkei also briefly fell by 931 points in the morning.
Why, after TSMC turned in such strong financial results, is the market still selling?
Because market trading is never just about good or bad—it’s about how much the act

AI is still pressing the gas pedal, but consumers have already started to ease off
The most worth putting together today isn’t two sets of similar data, but two completely different worlds.
The first world is TSMC.
TSMC’s net profit in the second quarter was about TWD 706.6 billion, up 77% year over year; revenue in USD was $40.2 billion, with a gross margin of 67.7%. The company not only raised its outlook for this year’s USD revenue growth to slightly more than 40%, but also increased its capital expenditure guidance to $60 billion to $64 billion.
This means that, at least for now, AI demand

Inflation is falling, but corporate accounts aren’t getting lighter
The U.S. Producer Price Index in June fell 0.3% month over month. Just looking at this number, inflation pressure appears to be cooling, and the Federal Reserve has one less reason to rush into rate hikes.
But what companies are doing the math on isn’t just a single inflation bill.
In its latest Beige Book, the Federal Reserve said that economic activity in most parts of the U.S. is still growing, but higher fuel prices have begun to crowd out consumer spending on other goods.
United Airlines’ experience is more direct. In the

Tonight’s U.S. PPI came in lower than expected.
In June, PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month, while the market had expected it to be flat; core PPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, also slightly below the expected 0.3%.
Looking at these numbers alone, the Federal Reserve doesn’t need to rush into raising interest rates, and the market has a reason to breathe a little easier.
But don’t rush to say inflation is already fine.
This time, the drop in PPI is largely being helped by energy prices. In June, final demand energy prices fell 6.4% month-over-month, with gasoline down even more—by 12%; service price

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