Former research dog in science and technology → now a full-time contract hunter, I have deconstructed 90% of the trading theories on the market using a research mindset, ultimately creating a system that integrates institutional money + order flow... Daily musings on market data highlights, focusing mainly on the European and American markets.

WaterExpoChaos

2h ago

Friday's two key levels before options expiration:
75k, put wall, potential support. But also the most negative GEX area... the biggest pain point... So it's best to attract support here at the biggest pain point, making it a support level...
If 75k can't hold, it could accelerate downward...
Above 80k call wall + GEX quagmire... Before Friday's options expiration, it's unlikely to break above 80k...
(Combined with various on-chain short-term cost pressures)

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WaterExpoChaos

11h ago

Today’s Market
It's so boring to watch the market move, so today let's talk about the overall trend of recent market conditions...
----------------
1. Recent reasons for the downward trend: After the MSTR earnings report day, since Michael Saylor hinted at possibly selling BTC, the probability of MSTR selling BTC by the end of this year on Poly has jumped from 12% before the earnings report to over 70%.
So from the day after the earnings call, American ETF funds have been shifting from net inflows to net outflows. Basically, they have been continuously net selling until now.
But the

BTC-1.84%

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WaterExpoChaos

05-25 10:07

Yesterday, 76k long position ✅
Today at the seaside~ Will update again when free
The main trend still refers to the previous chain. Will update more details later

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WaterExpoChaos

05-22 12:08

Today’s Market
Today doesn’t feel very good to squat... Maybe it will be a day of consolidation and volatility... As shown in Figure 2
Recently, the on-chain API has been down, and on-chain data is also unavailable...
Figure 1 Order Book
The buy orders for spot below are still at 76k and 76.7k, while the sell pressure above is still at 79k (78.5~79k combined with a large volume, need to pay attention)
The contract remains unchanged, indicating a range of oscillation around 76.5k and above 78k...
Ethereum around 2090 is worth watching, with a large wave of 50k ETH contract orders...

ETH-1.7%

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WaterExpoChaos

05-19 15:33

76350 has once again posted a contract buy order of over 3000+ BTC.....
Target brother's short position was not filled last time.. Did he repost it here?
Just happened to see a bullish idea for today..
Either now here, with a very narrow stop, to take this 76359 order of over 3000+...
Or still wait around 75.5k, combining liquidity and demand zones..

BTC-1.82%

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WaterExpoChaos

05-16 10:53

77,750 BTC contracts, 2,000 buy orders..
Is Target Ge about to TP?

BTC-1.82%

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WaterExpoChaos

05-15 12:53

Today I won't be posting the daily market overview... Over the weekend, I will share this week's on-chain analysis..
Recently, I've hit some snags in handling these tens of thousands of research reports... It all started with a fairly grand idea, aiming for a structure like this: Natural language demand -> LLM breaks down the demand -> LLM fetches data -> validation -> fetch more if needed -> start analysis after fetching -> finish analysis and begin writing, and so on..
The initial version was a manually crafted plan → Act → Observe → Reflect state machine.. I also tried LangGraph, and found

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WaterExpoChaos

05-14 11:30

Coffee machine hand-pulled latte art is the best ever... I was planning to mock it for pulling it crooked...
But it turned out they pulled a swan...
No updates today because I was at the exhibition.

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WaterExpoChaos

05-13 23:45

What the heck.....
Today, a big holder actually bought 4,750 BTC worth of 75k puts expiring on May 29, and also opened 60,000 ETH, with 2,100 puts expiring on May 29 as well..
All the rights ended up costing over $6 million....
Are they betting on a drop?

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WaterExpoChaos

05-13 12:26

Today’s Market
The liquidity + absorption at 80k for this low-long position—from the weekend until yesterday, it finally got absorbed.. This wave first eats 1000 points..
Right now, the upper side still appears to be suppressed by the target guy’s 3000 BTC sell orders at 81,275.. (Figure 1)
During the Asian session, it absorbed some buy orders during the day, and there were about 1000 actual transactions, so this isn’t spoofing.. There are still 2000 left suppressing..
Just now during the European trading session as well, a large wave of aggressive buy orders was absorbed—once it was f

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WaterExpoChaos

05-12 12:09

Today’s Market
Nothing much good has happened from yesterday to today... Continuing to wait...
Overall, there are no significant changes...
Figure 1: The order book is the same as yesterday... Sell pressure is still below 83k. The buy orders below are also still below 80k. The buy orders are not very large, so there is no imbalance band appearing below now.
The contract is also roughly in the same range as the spot. The only new addition is contract 81275, suspected to be close to 3,000 BTC sell orders from Target哥... which suppressed the entire Asian session today.
We need to wait f

BTC-1.84%

SFP-0.5%

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WaterExpoChaos

05-11 18:05

This week, five research reports and timing signals all indicate a buy for U.S. stocks... After review, the main recommendation is still SM... It is an oil stock...
This one was actually promoted two weeks ago... Then from 28 to 31, reaching TP1.
This week, it once again entered the recommended range... The underlying logic is, do you think $90 oil prices can be maintained into Q3?
Stock selection process: Seeking Alpha high-scoring stocks -> Local research reports + local timing agent scoring (Figure 1) -> Opus 4.7 (Figures 2,3) and GPT 5.5 (Figure 4) for review...
Entry range suggest

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WaterExpoChaos

05-11 15:29

AI - A Shares (1)
There has also been a lot done in A-shares... The simplest and most straightforward approach is to replicate the US stock market's research report - timing system...
Research reports focus on stock characteristics, macro background, valuation and earnings expectations, growth quality and competitive landscape, catalysts, capital flow, risk audits, shareholder structure, etc...
Timing looks at trend setting, phase identification, capital confirmation, technical analysis, etc...
But there are too many targets, and A-shares don't have something like the US stock market's

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WaterExpoChaos

05-10 13:08

AI - BTC (1)
After discussing gold, let's continue to look at some of the research AI has done on BTC over the past period...
The first of course is similar to the gold approach. If multi-agent trading can work with gold, can it also work with BTC? After all, there is more data on BTC...
For this part, I really searched for a ton of data... Almost everything from the MMT API, which costs $499 a month, was used... to develop this part...
It's also based on the multi-agent idea, including ICT / Price action / Liquidity / Scalping, and various other strategies...
The final result is som

BTC-1.84%

PAXG-0.76%

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WaterExpoChaos

05-08 12:24

Today’s market...
Yesterday, this wave dropped 80,000 but couldn't hold... Even with minimal delta in the Asian session, it still touched 79.1k...
The first question to answer today is whether 82.8k is the stage top... Can we consider the pattern to be bearish (different from intraday short)?.
Let's look at two main aspects first.
Figure 1: Based on the symmetry of this wave, if it’s to follow the previous two waves... there’s still some distance to a 5.5~5.8% pullback... To complete this wave, it’s roughly around 78k. At the same time, 78k is also the POC support level and the spot order supp

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WaterExpoChaos

05-07 12:04

Today’s Market...
Had a bit of a failure yesterday... In the end, Iran’s one response was enough to push it down.
From the data, although the total delta has reached, and open interest has decreased... but because the order book on the upside still hasn't reached the threshold, and no real entry model has emerged... So it doesn't meet my entry conditions, and I missed a short move...
Continuing to watch today...
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Figure 1: Order Book
Currently, the situation on the order book isn't much different from yesterday... A new sell order was placed below 83k...
And the support from

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WaterExpoChaos

05-06 12:07

Today’s Market
Still driven by continuous news factors... Oil prices fall, U.S. stocks rise, gold rises, BTC rises...
At this time, if you have been reading research reports in the group, you should feel quite comfortable... (see the previous message)
Back to today, we will continue to focus on the intraday market
Figure 1 Order book imbalance color band...
Still maintaining yesterday’s judgment... Without an upper color band... here, I still advise holding off on short-term swing trades...
The reason there is no color band here yet is because the sell orders haven't reached the t

BTC-1.84%

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WaterExpoChaos

05-05 13:25

81.5k still no model, keep waiting

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WaterExpoChaos

05-05 13:04

Today’s Market
Very strong... Yesterday only a 3% pullback to 78k and it continued upward...
The driving force still comes from ETF funds, with 78k on Friday and 82k yesterday. (Maybe there’s MicroStrategy again this week, they paused last week, and maybe they’ve started again this week)
Let’s keep watching today
Figure 1: From the order book... In recent days, around 80,000, a large collection of sell orders in spot and futures has been eaten up and executed under the push of funds...
Many people are selling off, while more funds are entering...
The range of futures sell orders al

BTC-1.84%

MSTRX-2.55%

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