Crypto_Xincheng

7/25 $BTC Market Overview & Analysis
😇 News:
Geopolitics & Macro: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate. Brent crude oil has risen to about $97.66/barrel, but Bitcoin has shown resilience and has not been hit as sharply as in previous periods when oil prices spiked. Traditional markets are flat; gold is holding above $4,000.
Regulation: The CLARITY Act remains stuck in a deadlock, and the market lacks clear catalysts.
Others: Strategy has adjusted Bitcoin-related indicators; large mining pool Poolin has filed for bankruptcy; the options market has seen a bullish cluster

7/23 $BTC Comprehensive Market Overview
😇 News:
The most core positive catalyst comes from US regulatory progress: the CLARITY Act has made substantial breakthroughs. The White House and the Senate reached an agreement on the ethics provisions (barring the President, Vice President, and senior officials from profiting from crypto during their terms), significantly increasing the likelihood that the bill will pass before the August recess. This directly boosts institutional and market confidence, and related crypto stocks surged during the day.
The macro environment is relatively war

7/22 $BTC Comprehensive Market Outlook
😇 News:
Positive catalysts: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for the 5th consecutive trading day. On July 20, the single-day inflow was about **$840k** (the highest since July 6), and the 5-day cumulative inflow was about **$727 million**. BlackRock’s IBIT is the main contributor.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed selling part of its MSTR shares to build USD reserves (rather than buying BTC in an unconventional way), but the market reaction was limited. BTC continued to rally strongly, showing that investors’ confidence in the long-term

Right now, this ETH market move is clearly faster than BTC’s.
ETH has risen +28% from the bottom.
BTC has only risen +14% from the bottom.
Clearly, ETH has led by a lot. Based on past experience, whichever one finishes rising first will usually pause and wait for the next catch-up move, so from the current situation, I think BTC will next make a catch-up.
For the resistance levels above, everyone can refer to what I sent you yesterday.

July 21 $BTC Comprehensive Market Overview Analysis
🤯 News Feed:
Positive factors: Bitcoin rebounded from recent lows and has regained the area around $65k. ETF inflows have resumed (net inflow of roughly $197M-$273M last week, ending the large-scale outflows seen in the previous several weeks), with significant net inflows into institutional products such as BlackRock. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to hold/accumulate BTC, providing support for institutional demand. Geopolitics did not trigger a sustained crash, showing market resilience.
Negative/Prudent factors: The Fear & Greed In

Major Web3 events this week (7.20–7.26):
July 20
The results of Changxin Technology’s subscription lottery have been released; investors must complete their payment obligations in a timely manner on July 20;
Cango will merge shares on July 20 at a 10:1 ratio
July 21
The Zcash Ironwood mainnet upgrade is expected to be activated on July 21
July 23
The European Central Bank will release its latest interest rate decision on July 23;
Cap’s Q2 points activity Homestead will end on July 23
July 24
Worldcoin will adjust the WLD token economic model; starting July 24, the daily unlock scale will be re

SpaceX went public for less than a month and already fell below the issue price! Is this an opportunity or a trap?❓
On June 12, SpaceX completed what is the largest IPO in history at an issue price of $135. In the first week, it surged to $200+ and reached a market cap of nearly 3 hundred billion! In the end, the honeymoon period only lasted 11 days: on June 22, it plunged 16% in a single day, and by July it had already fallen below the issue price. The latest range is $133-$140.
🤯 Here are a few key data points:
Short interest makes up 5-7% of the float. The cost of borrowing has already com

7/17 $BTC Market Overview & Analysis
🤯 News:
ETF fund flows improve but remain unstable: In early July, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows (e.g., about $266M on July 6), ending June’s record outflows (over $4.5B). However, some days turned to slight outflows again. Institutional demand rebound is the key support for the price rebound, but sustained strength has not yet formed.
Other events: Large holders such as Strategy reduced holdings, but the impact was limited as the market absorbed it quickly. Geopolitics (e.g., Iran-related) and macro data (e.g., CPI) occasionally trigger volatility

After this recent rally, a lot of people started asking:
What to do next when the bear market hits the bottom, and how to position❓️
I think the answer is simple—don’t rush to chase or search for those so-called “100x coins.” The market logic has changed. First, make sure you understand the core assets.
In this cycle, the truly worth holding long-term is only a handful of key targets (DYOR):
Cryptocurrencies: BTC (the king of value storage), ETH (the ecosystem leader), HYPE (emerging, high-upside potential), BNB (benefits from the trading platform), SOL (a high-speed new-generation cha

7/16 $BTC Market Overview Analysis
🤯 News Flow:
The June CPI will be released around July 14-15. The inflation data overall looks “cool,” and market interpretation is that the probability of a Fed rate hike in July has fallen sharply (CME FedWatch shows the relevant probability dropping from 40%+ to around 10-13%). This reverses earlier market concerns about high inflation and directly boosts risk assets such as BTC
At the same time, reports also mention that PPI data is soft, further strengthening the narrative of “inflation peaking/slowdown.” Overall, this is a typical rebound driven by ma

SPCX launched and surged to $228, now $137—down 40% from the peak.
It basically has caught up with BTC’s one-year drawdown 📉
Mainly because of these two points:
1) Current valuation is too high: SPCX’s market cap is about $200 trillion (share price around $145–150), corresponding to 2025 revenue of about $18.7 billion and a P/S multiple over 100x—at historical extreme levels
2) The company is still overall loss-making (AI business losses are huge). Starlink is profitable, but growth is slowing. Institutions like Morningstar believe fair value is only about $20k (about $62 per share)
What ever

📊 U.S. June PPI data hits at 8:30 PM tonight! Upstream inflation signals are key—combine it with CPI to gauge market direction
Yesterday’s CPI headline cooled noticeably (forecast 3.8%), but core remained sticky. Tonight’s PPI (Producer Price Index), as an upstream indicator, will further validate the inflation path.
Street consensus expectations:
- Headline PPI: MoM 0.0% ~ +0.2% (prior +1.1%), YoY about 6.3% (prior 6.5%)
- Core PPI (excluding food and energy): MoM +0.4%
- Ex food/energy/trade services: MoM slows to +0.4% (prior +0.8%)
My quick personal take:
- Base case: Data meets expectati

7🈷️15 $BTC Market Overview Analysis
🤯 News Flow:
Yesterday, the U.S. June CPI was released:
Month-over-month fell 0.4% (vs. expectation -0.1%), and year-over-year was about 3.5%-3.9% (below expected 3.8%, prior 4.2%).
Core CPI YoY was 2.6% (below expected 2.8%)
This strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut. Risk assets rebounded: Bitcoin surged quickly from below 62k to 64k+; the intraday gain was about 3-5%
Negative factors: The U.S. government transferred about $288 million from its wallet to Coinbase Prime for the seized BTC/ETH, raising concerns about sell pressure; geopolitical ten

Tonight 20:30 U.S. June CPI is coming in big! The market has already partially priced in a September rate hike—how will the data affect things?
Consensus expectations:
- Headline CPI: m/m -0.1%, y/y 3.8% (prior 4.2%)
- Core CPI: m/m +0.2%, y/y 2.9% (prior 2.9%)
Brief outlook:
- Most likely: headline falls clearly, core stays sticky → the market takes a short-term breather; the probability of a September rate hike (currently 50%+) edges down slightly, and tech/growth stocks may rebound
- Risk: if core runs hotter than expected (≥3.0%), rate-hike pricing will heat up further; U.S. Treasury yield

July 14 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News & Market Drivers:
The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the US were the biggest variable yesterday:
Iran announced the “closure” of the strait, and the US launched strikes targeting Iran
Oil prices were therefore pressured upward, but Bitcoin only saw modest movement (most periods down 0.3%–3%), suggesting the crypto market’s pricing of geopolitical risk has become more mature. BTC’s “macro hedge asset” characteristic is starting to show.
🤯 Flows:
Institutional capital is gradually returning at low levels—this is t

Summarize the core content of TomLee’s keynote speech at the Japan WebX 2026 summit today:
He delivered a talk themed “Ethereum: The Remedy for the Crypto Wealth Fear Gap,” with an overall optimistic tone, focusing on the confirmation of the crypto market’s bottom, Ethereum (ETH) entering the “ETH 2.0” phase, and institutional-grade positioning.
Key points:
1. The crypto market is already at the bottom, with the four major headwinds largely digested:
- The Federal Reserve shifting policy, the “Clear Act” remaining unresolved, capital flowing toward AI and financial stocks, and overall depre

7/13 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯 News:
As of July 12, the news flow was relatively calm, and the market is in a state of “wait-and-see + cautious recovery.” The main focus is on the upcoming macro data:
Key catalyst: July 14 (tomorrow) — the U.S. June CPI data (evening Beijing time). This is the biggest variable for July.
Market expectations: Overall CPI may show a negative month-over-month change due to a pullback in gasoline prices, but core CPI still needs attention.
If CPI comes in soft: it would strengthen rate-cut expectations, benefiting risk assets; BTC is likely to break ab

This week (7.13-7.19) Web3 big events💥
7.13
Japanese Siiibo Securities will be renamed “Metaplanet Securities” next Monday, accelerating the rollout of its BTC financial platform
7.14
The US will release June CPI data on July 14;
Fed Chair Waller will testify in Congress for the first time on July 14;
A New York judge has paused the ownership lawsuit over 390k dormant Bitcoin wallets, with a hearing scheduled for July 14;
Forsage co-founder Olena Oblamska will be extradited to the US, and a jury trial is expected to begin on July 14
7.15
The US will release June PPI data on July 15;
Fed Chai