Apple лобіює в Білому домі купівлю чіпів пам'яті ChangXin, акції Micron зросли в 4 рази за рік

Micron Technology (MU) stocks have risen nearly fourfold year-to-date, making it one of the most prominent semiconductor stocks in the AI memory boom. On July 4, the Financial Times reported that Apple is lobbying the White House to approve the purchase of chips from Chinese memory manufacturer CXMT, with Apple announcing the same week that it would raise prices across its Mac, iPad, iPhone, and Vision Pro lines, citing an unprecedented shortage of memory and storage.

Apple's Lobbying for CXMT Procurement: Kuo Ming-chi's "PR Operation" Analysis and CXMT's Own Capacity Constraints

According to the Financial Times, Apple is lobbying the White House to secure approval to purchase chips from CXMT and ensure CXMT is not placed on the US export control "entity list." Kuo Ming-chi, an analyst at TF International, stated that this move would have limited practical impact on alleviating the overall shortage because CXMT itself admitted in its IPO prospectus that its capacity is far below China's domestic demand: "CXMT doesn't even have enough for itself."

Kuo Ming-chi further suggested that Apple's move is more akin to a public relations operation: "Even if the lobbying ultimately yields nothing, media coverage will create the impression that Apple has done its best, but is constrained by US policy," thereby easing public dissatisfaction over price hikes and shortages. He also noted that Apple's aggressiveness this time is higher than when it evaluated YMTC in 2022 (primarily to reduce NAND costs), because the supply risk profile of DRAM is entirely different.

Jefferies Quantifies DRAM Shortage: 7% Supply Growth, 150–200 kwpm Deficit

According to a Jefferies report, the structural data for the DRAM supply chain is as follows:

Bit Supply Growth: Excluding China, global memory bit supply growth in 2026 will be only about 7%, and this growth is entirely from process node shrinkage, not new capacity.

Deficit Size: A supply gap of 150–200 kwpm (thousand wafers per month) persists, as wafer capacity has not expanded, and is expected to continue until 2027.

CSP Capacity Lock-Up: Cloud service providers (CSPs) have already locked in 50% of global memory capacity through LTAs, potentially rising to 70% in the future.

Consumer Electronics Rationing Under Pressure: Consumer electronics manufacturers are largely unable to secure LTAs, being crowded out by cloud long-term contracts.

Kuo Ming-chi stated that of the memory capacity allocated to consumer electronics in 2026, an estimated 15%–20% will shift to data centers by 2027, and actual shipments for Apple's A20 chip may be 10%–20% lower than originally targeted (all are Kuo's personal analysis and estimates, not investment advice).

Strategic Role of DRAM in the AI Inference Era

Jukan, an analyst at Citrini, stated that comparing memory to NVIDIA's framework is a flawed perspective: "The key bottleneck in the AI inference era is memory. Today, AI inference capability is directly tied to revenue, but inference performance does not simply improve by stacking more NVIDIA GPUs." He noted that GPUs in inference scenarios are often idle due to memory bottlenecks, making the value of increasing memory far greater than increasing GPUs.

Jukan quoted prominent investor Gavin Baker from the All-In Podcast: "DRAM is the most important bottleneck. The reason Musk is focusing his Terafab super fab plan on memory is because he believes memory is the key bottleneck—not lasers, not capacitors, not power semiconductors, not NAND, not hard drives, but DRAM." All of the above are the personal views of analysts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Apple lobbying the White House to purchase memory from CXMT, and can this solve the supply shortage?

According to TF International analyst Kuo Ming-chi, this move has limited practical impact because CXMT itself admitted in its IPO prospectus that its capacity is far below China's domestic demand; the DRAM shortage is a structural problem that cannot be solved by switching suppliers. Kuo Ming-chi stated that in his personal analysis, this is closer to a public relations operation to ease public dissatisfaction over price hikes; specific policy developments are subject to official US government announcements.

What is Micron (MU) stock's year-to-date growth, and what is the EPS outlook according to institutional analysis?

According to reports, Micron (MU) stock has risen nearly fourfold year-to-date. Bernstein analysts stated that, benefiting from higher HBM prices, EPS forecasts for the three major memory manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) will peak simultaneously in the second half of 2027, with Micron's growth curve considered the steepest; HBM average selling prices are estimated to be 2–2.5 times higher year-over-year in 2027. These are institutional analysis estimates, not investment advice; real-time stock prices are based on market quotes.

What is the exact size of the DRAM shortage, and when might it ease?

According to a Jefferies report, the current DRAM supply gap is approximately 150–200 kwpm (thousand wafers per month). Excluding China, global bit supply growth is only about 7%. Since wafer capacity has not expanded, the gap is expected to continue until 2027; CSPs have locked in 50% of global capacity, and consumer electronics manufacturers continue to face rationing pressure. Specific capacity dynamics are subject to official company announcements and the latest institutional reports.