預測市場顯示資產高度集中，84.1%的 Polymarket 交易者賠錢，而僅有 0.04% 的人持有超過 70% 的利潤。像《BETS OFF Act》這樣的立法努力旨在監管對敏感事件的投注，隨著主要金融機構進入市場、使用者保障方面的擔憂升高。

On March 20, Polymarket launched a market for "NCAA March Madness Perfect Prediction," which currently has no bets. Previously, Kalshi announced the launch of a "Perfect Prediction Challenge," encouraging users to predict the outcomes of "NCAA" events, with winners receiving a $1 billion prize.

Gate News: On March 19, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision (a policy decision by the central bank on whether to adjust the benchmark rate) and meeting minutes at 20:00 Beijing time tonight, while the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 21:15. Affected by the Middle East conflict, both central banks' monetary policies face uncertainty. The market is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in this meeting, but bets on future rate hikes continue to increase.

美國2月PPI年率為3.4%，高於預期的2.9%，創2022年以來新高，分析師指出此數據未受近期地緣政治事件影響，導致交易員下調對美聯儲2026年降息的押注。

Visa Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell stated that AI-powered intelligent networks represent a major opportunity for the payments industry, with AI agents expected to handle 15-25% of U.S. e-commerce transactions by 2030. AI will enhance payment success rates, promote micro-transactions, and drive digitalization of B2B payments, while Visa has launched the "Trusted Agent Protocol" to strengthen security. Intensifying competition is shifting market focus toward underlying infrastructure and technology standard-setting.

US Congressional Democrats introduced the "BETS OFF Act" legislation aimed at restricting predictive betting on wars and national security events to prevent speculation using sensitive information. The bill stems from unusual betting incidents, with Senators Murphy and Representatives Casar emphasizing the ethical controversies and systemic loopholes of such activities. If the legislation advances, it will impact blockchain-based event trading models.

Gate News report: On March 17, U.S. Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar introduced a new bill called the BETS OFF Act, which aims to prohibit government officials from participating in prediction market bets while in possession of insider information. The bill specifically targets suspected insider trading activities in events related to U.S. operations in Venezuela, Iran, and other locations, aiming to restrict officials from profiting through sensitive policy and military information.

Gate News report, on March 13, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of betting "Based FDV breaking through $100 million within 1 day after launch" has decreased to 45%. Additionally, the probability of breaking through $200 million within 1 day after launch is 19%, and the probability of breaking through $300 million within 1 day after launch is 7%. The trading volume of this prediction event has exceeded $3 million.