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Bank of America Forecasts Three Fed Rate Hikes in H2 2026, Delays Rate Cuts to 2028

GateNews
Forex
According to Bank of America's latest forecast, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times in the second half of 2026 by a cumulative 75 basis points, pushing the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%, with rate cuts delayed until 2028 or later. Chief U.S. Economist Aditya Bhave expects rate hikes in September, October, and December. The forecast contrasts sharply with market expectations tracked by CME FedWatch, which still anticipates potential rate cuts. Bank of America attributes its hawkish outlook to persistent inflation, with core PCE inflation rising to 3.5% in May, up 70 basis points year-over-year and well above the Fed's 2% target. A resilient labor market also supports the hiking scenario, as unemployment remains stable despite higher rates.
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In-Depth Analysis

U.S. bank predicts: the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year, and only cut rates in 2028

Market Whisper6h ago

Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%–3.75% as Warsh Prioritizes 2% Inflation Target

Lucas Bennett16h ago

FOMC dot plot: March vs June—how will the market reprice after the number of rate cuts dropped from 12 to 9 hikes?

Gate Instant Trends06-22 07:57
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