Cryptoquant stated its 365-day PnL Index continues trending lower, suggesting Bitcoin's cycle top has not occurred despite the asset trading near $62,656, down approximately 50% from its October 2025 record of roughly $126,000. The onchain analytics firm's bull-bear gauge flipped green on May 12, 2026, marking its first bullish signal since March 2023. Cryptoquant's framework interprets the depressed and falling PnL Index reading as characteristic of an accumulation phase rather than a terminal stage, contrasting with analysts who view October's high as the cycle peak and the subsequent 50% drawdown as a conventional post-peak bear phase.
Cryptoquant Explains 365-Day PnL Index Methodology
Cryptoquant noted the PnL Index blends several onchain gauges including the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit and loss, and the ratio of long-term to short-term holders. The firm tracks the index against its 365-day moving average, with the relationship between the two defining whether the cycle indicator reads bullish or bearish. In Cryptoquant's framework, a depressed and falling reading marks the accumulation phase of a cycle rather than its terminal stage, historically the territory where bear markets bottom rather than where bull markets die.
Analysts Debate Whether October 2025 High Marked Cycle Peak
The bullish interpretation faces a counterargument as Bitcoin printed its record high around $126,000 in October 2025 and has since been cut in half, a drawdown that convinced some analysts the cycle top is already in and the market is working through a conventional post-peak bear phase. Cryptoquant's signal implies the opposite, indicating October's high was not this cycle's final word and the structure resembles a market still building toward its peak. Analysts cautioned the indicator produced a false positive in 2022, and that a green light alone does not guarantee a durable uptrend.
Whale Bought $98.9 Million Bitcoin at June 5 Low
One whale bought $98.9 million in Bitcoin at the June 5 low of $59,734 and netted a $3.5 million profit within two days as the market bounced. BTC has since held above $60,000, changing hands near $62,550 at the time of writing. Cryptoquant noted macro forces from tariff headlines to Federal Reserve policy have repeatedly overridden onchain structure this year.
FAQ
What does Cryptoquant's 365-day PnL Index signal about Bitcoin's cycle?
Cryptoquant stated its 365-day PnL Index continues trending lower, suggesting the current BTC cycle has not reached its peak. The firm's bull-bear gauge flipped green on May 12, 2026, its first bullish signal since March 2023.
How much has Bitcoin declined from its October 2025 high?
Bitcoin trades near $62,656, down approximately 50% from its October 2025 record of roughly $126,000.
What whale activity occurred at Bitcoin's June 5 low?
One whale bought $98.9 million in Bitcoin at the June 5 low of $59,734 and netted a $3.5 million profit within two days as the market bounced.
