Bitcoin's two-year moving average model places a potential cycle peak near $437,000, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who argues a move above $500,000 remains possible. In the short term, BTC may sweep equal highs near $64,700-$65,200 before reversing toward the $59,000-$61,000 zone, based on an intraday chart shared by analyst Kaz. The long-term projection is derived from the model's historical upper band, calculated at five times the two-year simple moving average, while the short-term setup is driven by a liquidity pool above $64,664 and the anticipated volatility from an upcoming CPI release. Bitcoin is currently trading close to the model's lower investor band near $64,000, suggesting the market remains far from the projected upper boundary.
Two-Year Moving Average Model Places Cycle Peak Near $437,000
The two-year simple moving average model positions Bitcoin's next cycle investor-top level near $437,000, according to a chart shared by Michaël van de Poppe. The model's upper band, calculated at five times the moving average, has historically marked overheated phases near major cycle peaks, while the lower band has tracked broad accumulation areas. Bitcoin is currently trading close to the lower investor band near $64,000, per the chart. Van de Poppe expects the next bull market to extend further than the previous cycle, which produced a shallower advance than many traders expected. He argues that investors may use the last cycle as their main reference and sell too early if momentum later accelerates. The $437,000 level would require a major expansion in demand, liquidity, and investor risk appetite, and Bitcoin would need to reclaim previous highs and establish a sustained long-term uptrend. The model does not provide a clear timeline or guarantee a move above $400,000.
Short-Term Chart Projects Liquidity Sweep Above $64,664 Before Reversal
Bitcoin may push above equal highs near $64,664 as traders position ahead of the CPI release, according to an intraday chart shared by analyst Kaz. The chart projects a rejection from the $64,700-$65,200 area, followed by a deeper move toward $59,000-$61,000. The equal highs create a visible liquidity pool above the current range, where short stops and breakout orders may be concentrated. A brief move through that level could collect liquidity without confirming a sustainable breakout. The CPI release could provide the volatility needed for that sweep, but price would need to fall back below $64,664 after the move to support the idea that the breakout was a trap. Initial downside support sits near $62,100, followed by the $61,000 area. If sellers maintain control below those levels, the larger liquidity target near $59,700-$60,100 could come into play. The bearish scenario would weaken if Bitcoin clears $65,200 and holds above the former highs, suggesting buyers absorbed the overhead liquidity.
FAQ
What is the basis for the Bitcoin $437,000 cycle peak projection?
The projection is derived from the two-year simple moving average model, which calculates an upper band at five times the moving average. This upper band has historically marked overheated phases near major cycle peaks. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared a chart placing the next investor-top level near $437,000, though he argues a move above $500,000 remains possible.
Why might Bitcoin sweep $64,700 before reversing lower?
Equal highs near $64,664 create a liquidity pool where short stops and breakout orders may be concentrated. Analyst Kaz's intraday chart projects a brief move above $64,700-$65,200 to collect that liquidity, followed by a rejection and deeper move toward $59,000-$61,000. The CPI release could provide the volatility needed for the sweep.
What would invalidate the short-term bearish scenario?
If Bitcoin clears $65,200 and holds above the former highs near $64,664, the bearish scenario would weaken. That would suggest buyers absorbed the overhead liquidity and could support further upside instead of the projected reversal toward $59,000-$61,000.
