Bitcoin Quantum Computing Threat Is Manageable, Real Issue Is Governance: Analyst

Gate News message, April 25 — Bitcoin analyst James Check said quantum computing poses a "manageable risk" rather than a systemic threat to Bitcoin, according to CoinDesk. Approximately 1.7 million BTC are held in Satoshi-era addresses, which could face risk if quantum computing breaks elliptic curve signatures, potentially creating $145 billion in selling pressure at current prices.

However, the scale is manageable relative to Bitcoin's trading volume. Long-term holders distribute 10,000 to 30,000 BTC daily during bull markets, meaning all Satoshi-era holdings equal only two to three months of typical profit-taking. In the previous bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, with monthly exchange inflows reaching close to 850,000 BTC. The derivatives market can absorb equivalent trading volumes in days.

Check emphasized that the real concern is not selling pressure itself, but governance—specifically mechanisms like BIP-361 to freeze Satoshi-era addresses. This represents the more pressing challenge than market impact.