BTC drops 0.45% in 15 minutes: Escalation of the US-Iran conflict sends oil prices soaring 12%, triggering a repricing of macro risk

From 2026-07-17 13:00 to 13:15 UTC, BTC on a 15-minute cycle fell 0.45%, with a trading range of 62,774–63,098.7 USDT and an amplitude of 0.51%. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has retreated from around $64,900 to about $63,075, for a cumulative drop of roughly 1.72%. Market attention has increased; volatility remains relatively moderate, but macro uncertainty has risen significantly.

The main driver behind this sudden move is the continued escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The US launched airstrikes against Iran for six consecutive nights. Fighting in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude oil up about 12% week-over-week to $104.4 per barrel, nearing levels that would revive US concerns about gasoline prices at around $4 per gallon. Dallas Fed Chair Logan publicly advocated for “a modest rate hike” to counter oil-price-driven inflation, causing market expectations for an October Fed hike to surge. Risk assets are broadly under pressure, and BTC—an interest-rate-sensitive, non-yield asset—faces selling pressure.

Meanwhile, several marginal factors are stacking up and amplifying near-term volatility. First, divisions within the Fed are intensifying; the Beige Book shows employment signals diverging (growth in 5 regions, flat in 7). Ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, policy uncertainty is rising. Second, ETH dominance is at a relatively elevated level, with capital rotating within the crypto market from BTC to ETH, contributing to marginal outflows from BTC. In addition, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Brazil; the expansion of trade friction further reinforces the global stagflation narrative. Notably, the current Order Book buy-sell depth ratio is 11.44 (bids are dominant), but the available data sample is limited to a single tier, suggesting the market is not panic-selling; rather, risk appetite is contracting amid geopolitical and macro uncertainty.

Near-term risk hinges on the dual uncertainty of geopolitics and policy. If the Strait of Hormuz conflict escalates further and drives oil prices above $110, risk assets like BTC will likely face sustained pressure. Conversely, if diplomatic mediation delivers a breakthrough and oil prices fall, inflation expectations would ease significantly. Key indicators to watch include the wording of the FOMC rate decision, the trajectory of crude oil prices, and changes in the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Technically, $62,600–$62,700 is the near-term support zone, while $64,900 is recent resistance; if support breaks, BTC may test $61,500. It is recommended to monitor the timing of macro events and on-chain capital flows, and to stay alert to risks from short-term volatility.