BTC sharply drops 0.61% in 15 minutes: The escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict triggers safe-haven buying, pressuring the short-term technical outlook

From 00:30 to 00:45 (UTC) on July 13, 2026, BTC experienced a sharp decline of 0.61% within 15 minutes. The price ranged from $63,572.3 to $64,202.5 USDT, with a volatility of 0.98%. Escalation of geopolitical conflict boosted risk-off sentiment. BTC rose approximately 0.54% over the past 24 hours to $64,146, but the short-term gains were largely given back. Trading volume did not show a significant increase, and the market reaction remained relatively restrained.

The core driving factor behind this unusual move was the sudden escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The US carried out another round of airstrikes on Iran, hitting missile launch sites, ammunition depots, and communications facilities. Iran immediately retaliated with missile and drone strikes against Gulf countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, putting shipping safety through the Strait of Hormuz under a serious threat. Spillover from geopolitical risk pushed Brent crude oil prices up by about 3%, and as a beneficiary of the “digital gold” narrative, BTC received support from safe-haven buying.

At the same time, there are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve over the inflation outlook. The June CPI year-over-year forecast, driven by fuel prices, reached 4.2%, creating medium-term macro uncertainty. On the technical side, the short term is bearish: the 15-minute moving averages are pointing lower and the 1-hour MACD has formed a death cross, putting short-term pullback pressure on the table. However, the daily moving averages remain bullish, and the medium-term trend has not been broken. Order book liquidity is extremely thin, with only one level of depth; bid and ask walls are clustered around $64,145, making the price highly sensitive to large order impacts.

Attention should be paid to the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict, the June CPI data, and Congress testimony by Fed Chair Warsh. Near-term support to watch is $63,672, while resistance is at $64,433. Volatility risk is currently elevated. Missing trading volume data weakens attribution confidence, so it is recommended to monitor changes in order book depth and whether volume confirms the move.