On June 23, 2026, Micron Technology’s (Micron Technology) intraday price hit an all-time high of $1,213.56. The stock closed that day at $1,211.38, with a single-day gain of 6.82%. Just the day before, Micron had announced a strategic partnership with AI startup Anthropic, covering multiple areas including technology R&D, long-term supply, and capital investment.
However, this historic breakthrough lasted less than 24 hours. On June 24, Micron’s stock opened by plunging, and ultimately closed at $1,051.77, down 13.18% on the day. Trading volume was as high as $63.370 billion. The intraday low reached $1,038.50, and the intraday range was 7.14%. From the $1,213.56 historical peak to the $1,038.50 intraday low, the pullback exceeded 14%.
This is not an isolated event. On the same day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 7.9%, SanDisk fell 13.64%, Western Digital dropped 8.45%, ARM slid more than 10%, and Qualcomm, Applied Materials, and Texas Instruments fell more than 8%. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.21%, and the global chip stock market capitalization evaporated by several hundred billion dollars in a single trading day.
Were multiple negative factors stacked together, or was one factor driving the plunge?
In terms of the direct trigger mechanism, the June 24 selloff had a clear transmission chain. In the Asia-Pacific market, storage-related stocks moved sharply lower first; panic sentiment then crossed the ocean into pre-market U.S. trading, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gapped down at the open. At the same time, the hawkish policy signals released by the Federal Reserve last week continued to gain traction—because inflation remained stubbornly high, investors shifted into risk-avoidance trading and sold off the popular tech stocks that had led the broader market gains so far this year.
The deeper reason is that multiple pressures were stacked on top of each other. Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, summarized the tech sector’s predicament as “dual pressure” in a research report: on one hand, expectations that interest rates will remain high have risen, which reduces the present value of earnings far into the future; on the other hand, investors are worried about elevated valuations and uncertainty around AI monetization capability.
From an industry perspective, the memory chip sector has long been viewed as a strong cyclical product, with prices swinging widely with inventory and demand cycles. This round of gains came from structural demand driven by AI infrastructure buildouts, but market worries about the top of the cycle have never really disappeared. Historical data show that when Micron’s stock topped out at the beginning of 2022, its P/E ratio was only 9x; the stock later was cut in half. For the cycle peaks in 1984 and 2018, the P/E ratios were 15x and 5.5x, respectively. This pattern reveals a harsh reality: the low P/E ratios of memory stocks often appear at the top of the cycle, which is when “cheapness” can lure investors into starting to lose heavily.
How high have earnings expectations gotten?
Micron will release its 2026 fiscal third-quarter earnings after the U.S. market closes on June 24. Market expectations for this report have already reached near-peak levels.
According to FactSet’s analyst consensus survey, Micron’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter ended May are expected to reach $20.57, up nearly 1,000% from $1.91 in the same period last year. For revenue, the Bloomberg analyst consensus expects it to reach $35.5 billion. Micron’s official guidance is also at historical peak levels—Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion (plus or minus $750 million), with gross margin around 81%.
But the degree of divergence in market expectations is just as striking. Analysts’ revenue forecasts range from $33.7 billion to $40.9 billion, a spread of $7.0 billion. This means that even if Micron delivers a results report that matches the company’s official guidance, it still may not satisfy all investors—what the market wants is upside beyond expectations.
More noteworthy is whether the growth rate is sustainable. Current forecasts suggest Micron’s Q3 earnings may mark a near-term peak in the growth rate for adjusted EPS. The year-over-year growth rate for the next fiscal quarter is expected to slow to about 725%. When growth slips from 1,000% down into the 700% range, the market’s logic for repricing valuation will change fundamentally.
Why is the demand narrative suddenly being questioned?
For more than the past year, the core trading logic in the market has been “AI has unlimited demand for HBM.” As long as Micron announces that capacity is sold out, the stock can keep a momentum upward. And the reality supports it—Micron’s full-year 2026 HBM3E and HBM4 capacity has already been allocated through long-term contracts. By 2026, HBM supply is entirely sold out. In particular, the HBM4 products targeting Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform started shipping in March 2026, and the ramp-up speed to mass production is significantly faster than the previous generation.
However, as the earnings release window approaches, market focus is making a systematic shift—from “demand narrative” to “performance narrative.” Investors are starting to ask a sharper question: demand exists, but can it fully translate into revenue and profits?
This question is surging at this moment because the upcoming earnings report is enough to validate the quality of the storage bull market over the past one and a half years. When the market is no longer satisfied with qualitative descriptions like “capacity sold out,” and instead demands quantitative financial data, the gap between expectations and reality becomes the biggest source of uncertainty. Some market analysts have said investor worries that chip demand may not meet expectations, combined with the Fed’s continued hawkish stance, ultimately triggered concentrated selling ahead of the earnings report.
Is the super-cycle facing a test at the turning point?
Structural changes happening in the memory chip industry cannot be ignored. Global semiconductor revenue is moving from $800 billion toward a push to $1.3 trillion, and HBM has already secured more than 85% of the AI chip silicon area. Citigroup expects Micron’s gross margin for fiscal 2026 to expand sharply from 39.8% in fiscal 2025 to 76.9%, and further rise to 82.9% in fiscal 2027.
But the other side of the cycle is also worth examining. Some institutions predict that the average selling prices for DRAM and NAND will peak in mid-2026, and that the average prices of both types of chips could start declining in back-to-back quarters as early as the beginning of next year. Although Morgan Stanley believes the storage cycle is still accelerating, it also acknowledges that AI demand and long-term agreements may extend this run for longer.
The June 24 plunge happened in this context. It’s not just a technical pullback—it reflects a collective reassessment by the market of the sustainability of a memory chip super-cycle. Over the past 15 months, Micron’s stock price has gained about 18x—doubling from $300 to $600, then doubling again from $600 to $1,200. With such a massive rally, any gust of news could trigger large-scale profit-taking.
How will the earnings results affect the market’s next direction?
The upcoming earnings report is seen as a key catalyst because it will answer multiple core questions at once.
First, whether Micron’s earnings growth really tops out in Q3 as the market expects. If the EPS growth peak is confirmed, the market will systematically reduce its growth expectations for fiscal 2027, which directly affects whether the current valuation of around 49x P/E (TTM) can be sustained.
Second, management’s statements about the expansion pace of HBM4 and second-half capital expenditures (CapEx) will directly affect valuation anchors for equipment makers. Micron has announced a production capacity expansion plan of about $200 billion, but how quickly capacity ramps up will determine how fast the supply-demand landscape changes.
Third, the options market shows that investors are betting the earnings report will bring about 20% stock price volatility. Some institutions noted that if the post-earnings price movement is only around 5%, it may not materially affect the market; but if the rise/fall reaches around 10%, it could cause tech stocks to show directional trends over the next two weeks.
In addition, Nvidia’s annual shareholder meeting will be held in the early hours of June 25 Beijing time. As the leading name in the AI compute power chain, Nvidia’s assessment of downstream demand and its description of supply-chain bottlenecks will become another key variable for the semiconductor sector’s subsequent outlook.
FAQ
Q: What was Micron’s historical high before the June 24 plunge?
A: Micron hit an all-time intraday high of $1,213.56 on June 23, 2026, and closed at $1,211.38 that day.
Q: What were Micron’s exact drop and closing price on June 24?
A: According to Gate market data, as of June 24, 2026, Micron closed at $1,051.77, down 13.18% on the day. Trading value on the day was $633.70 million.
Q: What are market expectations for Micron’s Q3 earnings?
A: FactSet’s analyst consensus shows Micron’s adjusted EPS for Q3 is expected to be $20.57, up nearly 1,000% year over year; revenue is expected to be about $35.5 billion. However, market expectations have a wide range, with revenue forecasts varying from $33.7 billion to $40.9 billion.
Q: What is the main reason for this plunge?
A: The plunge was driven by multiple factors stacking together: the Fed’s hawkish signal triggered broad tech selling, investors took profits ahead of earnings, concerns grew that the memory chip cycle is near its top, and doubts emerged about the ROI of AI investment.
Q: What is Micron’s current status for HBM capacity?
A: Micron’s full-year 2026 HBM3E and HBM4 capacity is fully sold out through long-term contracts. The company can only meet customers’ actual demand of roughly 50% to 66%.
