Gibraltar's Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry launched the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 on July 13, establishing what officials describe as the world's first dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets. The regime exempts prediction-market operators from certain provisions of the territory's Gambling Act 2025 and places them under tailored rules requiring Gambling Authority approval for all event contracts. Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham KC MP, called it a bespoke framework designed to ensure market integrity, transparency, participant protection, and financial crime prevention. The move positions Gibraltar as a regulatory outlier in Europe, where the EU's markets watchdog ESMA maintains that many event contracts meeting financial-instrument definitions remain barred from retail sale under existing binary-options rules. Gibraltar already derives roughly a quarter of its GDP from gambling-associated services and is diversifying into prediction markets as the UK raised its Remote Gaming Duty to 40%.
Gibraltar Requires Gambling Authority Approval for All Event Contracts
The 24-page Prediction Market Regulations 2026 instrument takes what the government describes as an activity-based and risk-based approach. Under the rules, every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority. Each contract must be clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation, and consistent with regulatory objectives. An independent supervisory panel will oversee the framework. Operators must maintain their own systems to prevent market abuse. Feetham said the focus is not on labels but on ensuring the chosen framework is capable of effective supervision and robust standards of market integrity, transparency, participant protection, and financial crime prevention.
ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire's Wire Markets Operate Under New Framework
ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction-market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026 built on the ADI Chain blockchain run by Abu Dhabi's ADI Foundation, was already licensed in Gibraltar as a betting intermediary on March 26 under the territory's previous 2005 gambling law. The second product to fall under the new regime, called Wire Markets, is the platform of California-based WagerWire. Wire Markets was approved in principle in June and is targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger called the framework a landmark moment for the prediction market industry, saying it gives operators the clarity they need to build for the long term. Gibraltar's first prediction-market license in March was a distinct milestone from the framework launched July 13: the former authorized a single operator under existing law, while the latter creates a dedicated regime for the sector.
EU Regulators Maintain Retail Ban on Binary-Options-Like Event Contracts
The new Gibraltar framework widens the gap with the rest of Europe. Earlier this month, the EU's markets watchdog ESMA reminded firms that event contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already barred from retail sale under existing binary-options rules. In June, nine national regulators issued a joint statement warning operators over consumer-protection risks. The Netherlands had already ordered Polymarket to cease serving its market.
Gibraltar Gambling Sector Accounts for 25% of GDP as Prediction Market Volume Reaches $44.8 Billion
Gibraltar already derives roughly a quarter of its GDP from gambling-associated services. With the United Kingdom, its core market, raising its Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, diversifying into a new, fast-growing vertical is a way to offset that pressure on the operators hosted by the territory. Regulated prediction-market trading volume continues to climb steeply. Combined monthly volume across the leading platforms reached $44.8 billion in June.
FAQ
What did Gibraltar launch on July 13?
Gibraltar's Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry launched the Prediction Market Regulations 2026 on July 13, creating what officials describe as the world's first dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets.
Which operators are regulated under Gibraltar's new prediction market framework?
Two operators fall under the new regime: ADI Predictstreet, licensed as a betting intermediary on March 26, and WagerWire's Wire Markets, approved in principle in June and targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August.
How does Gibraltar's approach differ from the EU's position on prediction markets?
Gibraltar exempts prediction-market operators from certain gambling law provisions and places them under tailored rules, while the EU's markets watchdog ESMA maintains that event contracts meeting financial-instrument definitions remain barred from retail sale under existing binary-options rules.
