Hormuz Strait Restores Operations as US-Iran Ceasefire Takes Hold; Shipping Market Eyes 25 Ships Daily vs 120 Pre-Crisis

According to Citic Securities analysis, the Hormuz Strait has begun resuming normal operations in H1 2026 following a ceasefire arrangement between the US and Iran. The UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) has launched a large-scale ship evacuation plan to assist hundreds of commercial vessels and tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Current daily traffic through the strait stands at approximately 25 vessels, significantly below the pre-crisis norm of over 120 daily transits, with an estimated 500-600 ships awaiting passage. Despite the reopening, shipping risk premiums remain elevated; ultra-large tanker rates have climbed to around $470,000 per day, far exceeding pre-conflict levels. War risk insurance costs continue to spike, with some premiums surging thousands of times above pre-crisis levels. Looking ahead, the securities firm expects oil tanker rates to rise further in Q3 2026 as the strait sees sustained improvement.