Eight research center directors from major Korean securities firms surveyed on semiconductor concentration in KOSPI dismissed recent AI investment slowdown concerns as temporary noise rather than structural decline. The directors cited semiconductors accounting for approximately 90% of KOSPI earnings growth, with recent market corrections attributed to short-term supply factors including foreign investor outflows and profit-taking rather than fundamental deterioration. Survey participants from KB, Shinhan, Mirae Asset, Daeshin, Samsung, Kiwoom, Meritz, and Hana securities emphasized that hyperscaler capital expenditure expansion remains the key indicator for semiconductor sector outlook.
Eight Korean Securities Directors Dismiss AI Investment Slowdown Concerns
Kim Hak-gyun, Shinhan Securities Research Center Director, stated that Meta's AI computing rental plan represents a shift in data center utilization methods rather than a halt to AI semiconductor purchases, concluding it does not signify fundamental change in semiconductor industry conditions. Yang Ji-hwan, Daeshin Securities Research Center Director, characterized AI CAPEX rally concerns as repeated questions over the past three years, projecting continued competitive investment increases to prevent sunk costs as current AI model performance maximization is expected within the next 12 months.
Hwang Seung-taek, Hana Securities Research Center Director, analyzed recent semiconductor corrections as resulting from overlapping profit-taking following sharp price increases, concentration mitigation, and leverage product supply dynamics rather than industry deterioration itself. Lee Jong-hyung, Kiwoom Securities Research Center Director, stated that interpreting semiconductor concentration as market risk requires caution given semiconductors comprise over 90% of KOSPI operating profit growth.
Semiconductors Account for 90% of KOSPI Earnings Growth
Park Yeon-joo, Mirae Asset Securities Research Center Director, projected continued positive momentum centered on semiconductors considering ongoing upward revisions to semiconductor company earnings, the early stage of global AI investment driving these results, higher valuation attractiveness of Korean semiconductor sector versus global peers, and improved earnings stability through long-term supply contracts enabling valuation recovery.
Yoon Seok-mo, Samsung Securities Research Center Director, assessed that the AI semiconductor rally remains in progress and will continue its leading role in the second half. Lee Jong-hyung, Kiwoom Securities Research Center Director, explained that while past memory cycles centered on supply, structural AI demand now exists, stating leading stock earnings visibility will not be easily damaged. Lee contrasted current conditions with historical memory cycles, noting the formation of structural demand represents a fundamental difference.
Hyperscaler CAPEX Expansion Cited as Key Semiconductor Indicator
Kim Hak-gyun, Shinhan Securities Research Center Director, identified hyperscaler earnings announcements and capital expenditure plans as most important factors, explaining that investment expansion trends have continued thus far and no structural changes sufficient to alter semiconductor views have been confirmed. Kim advised that as semiconductors constitute a cyclical industry, approaches based solely on long-term optimism are inadequate, recommending continuous data verification on three-month and six-month intervals rather than assuming unconditional favorability over five years.
Kim projected supply shortages continuing through 2028 given AI investment cannot easily stop. Park Yeon-joo, Mirae Asset Securities Research Center Director, forecast that macro variable influence will further diminish as AI investment remains essential.
US Interest Rate Increases Identified as Risk Variable
Kim Dong-won, KB Securities Research Center Director, diagnosed prolonged interest rate increase trends as the largest risk if they lead to AI investment reductions. Park Yeon-joo, Mirae Asset Securities Research Center Director, identified inflation and interest rates as risk factors, analyzing that higher rates increase corporate capital procurement costs and could complicate execution of current massive-scale CAPEX.
Directors assessed low probability that interest rate increases alone would significantly curtail AI investment. Kim Dong-won stated AI investment cannot easily stop, projecting supply shortages through 2028. Park Yeon-joo forecasted diminishing macro variable impact given AI investment necessity.
FAQ
What percentage of KOSPI earnings growth do semiconductors represent?
Semiconductors account for approximately 90% of KOSPI earnings growth, according to Lee Jong-hyung, Kiwoom Securities Research Center Director, who stated this concentration should not be interpreted as market risk.
Why did Korean securities directors dismiss AI investment slowdown concerns?
Directors characterized recent concerns as temporary noise rather than structural decline, citing continued hyperscaler CAPEX expansion, early-stage AI investment cycle, and attribution of market corrections to short-term supply factors including foreign investor outflows and profit-taking rather than fundamental industry deterioration.
