Prediction Markets Surge to $57.5B Volume in Midyear 2026, Exceeding Target Pace While Crypto ETPs Lag

According to 21Shares' June 24 midyear outlook, prediction markets recorded $57.5B in volume through May, more than half of the $100B annual target and over 10 times the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, crypto ETP assets fell to $140B by May, far short of the $400B forecast, with Bitcoin ETPs accounting for $110B.

Other predictions similarly underperformed. Stablecoin supply reached $320B versus a $1 trillion year-end target, while DeFi total value locked stood at $140B against the $300B forecast. Bitcoin's predicted cycle break did not materialize, as BTC peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 before retracing roughly 50%, though remaining significantly above previous bear market lows. 21Shares researchers noted that overall market direction for 2026 remains on track, though progress varies significantly across sectors.