Jan3 CEO Samson Mow posted on X on June 28 that Bitcoin has bottomed, with the core argument being that in 2024, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high 37 days before the April halving. Mow believes this indicates the traditional four-year cycle has been compressed and accelerated. Multiple analysts hold highly divergent views: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts a drop to around $40,000 within six months before bottoming.
Samson Mow's Halving Cycle Acceleration Theory and Core Argument
In his X post, Mow noted that in 2024, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high 37 days before the April halving, breaking the historical pattern of "new highs occurring 12-18 months after the halving." He wrote: "Even if you believe in the cycle, you should deduce that the cycle has accelerated. The bottom is in."
Previously, several analysts also pointed out after the pre-halving new high in 2024 that institutional demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs is reshaping market trends. Opposing views argue that a single cycle's data is insufficient to conclude the four-year pattern has permanently changed. The above are personal opinions from various parties, not market consensus.
Comparison of Bitcoin Bottom Price Predictions from Various Analysts
Below are public bottom predictions from various analysts, all personal views and not investment advice:
Samson Mow (Jan3): Bottom is in, around current $60,000 (June 28, X platform)
Omkar Godbole (CoinDesk): The 50/100-week moving averages are about to form a death cross, but historically similar signals in 2018 and 2022 coincided with bottoms, indicating limited downside
Markus Thielen (10x Research): Bottom around $55,000, timeframe August to October
James Van Straten (CoinDesk): Needs to fall more than 15%, $50,000-$54,000 is the key battle zone
Arthur Hayes (BitMEX): Drop to around $40,000 within six months before bottoming
Van Straten's Explanation of the 200-Week Moving Average and Realized Price
Van Straten pointed out that in every major bear market since 2011, Bitcoin has ultimately broken below the "realized price" (the average cost basis of all on-chain BTC calculated at the market price at the time of their last movement) before establishing a cycle bottom. In the current cycle, Bitcoin has not yet fallen below this level.
Van Straten also noted that the $50,000-$54,000 range near the 200-week moving average is the next key technical support battle zone. The above is Van Straten's personal analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the basis for Samson Mow's halving cycle acceleration theory?
According to Mow's June 28 X post, the core basis is that in 2024, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high 37 days before the April halving, breaking the historical pattern of "new highs occurring 12-18 months after the halving." Mow deduces from this that the four-year cycle has accelerated, and the bottom arrives earlier than historical patterns indicate. The above is Mow's personal view, not market consensus.
Is the 50/100-week death cross mentioned by CoinDesk analysts a bearish signal?
According to Omkar Godbole's analysis, the 50-week moving average is about to cross below the 100-week moving average, forming a death cross. However, historically, similar signals at the end of 2018 and 2022 were followed by strong rebounds within months. Godbole notes that this signal historically often coincides with market bottoms. The above is Godbole's personal analysis.
What is Bitcoin's "realized price," and why is it relevant to bottom determination?
The "realized price" is the average cost basis of all on-chain BTC calculated at the market price at the time of their last movement, representing the average holding cost of the entire network. According to Van Straten's analysis, every major bear market since 2011 has broken below this level before establishing a bottom. Bitcoin has not yet broken below this level; Van Straten believes that based on historical patterns, the true bottom characteristic has not yet appeared.
