SpaceX Completes Largest IPO, Fuels Merger Speculation with Tesla as Stock Holds Above $400

Following SpaceX's completion of its record initial public offering, market analysts are intensifying speculation over a potential merger with Tesla. According to multiple Wall Street strategists, Tesla's stock has rebounded above the $400 mark over the past two trading sessions, partly driven by investor bets on a future combination between the two companies.

Analysts cite AI as the largest intersection between the companies, including SpaceX's integration of xAI and collaboration with Tesla on semiconductor manufacturing. However, valuation remains a significant hurdle: Tesla's market capitalization stands near $1.5 trillion, while SpaceX has approached $2 trillion post-IPO. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates over 80% probability of a merger completion within the next year, while Polymarket prices the odds of a deal by year-end at approximately 39%. Morningstar's Seth Goldstein notes Tesla shareholders may resist accepting SpaceX at such a premium valuation without a decline to more reasonable levels.