This Week: U.S. Inflation Data, China GDP Release, and Earnings Season Kick Off

This week, starting from July 14, U.S. inflation data and the start of earnings season will be key tests of market resilience. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases Tuesday, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) following Wednesday and retail sales data on Thursday. Market focus will center on core CPI trends and potential Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, with LSEG data showing current pricing reflects a 25% probability of a December rate increase. Citigroup analysts predict core CPI could fall below 2.5% year-over-year by end-of-summer, signaling sustained inflation relief and potentially ruling out rate hikes entirely.

Meanwhile, China releases second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, with economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expecting growth to slow to 4.5% year-over-year from 5% in Q1. June industrial production and retail sales data will provide additional economic momentum clarity. In earnings, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report Tuesday to launch the earnings season, with S&P 500 constituents expected to deliver 23.7% year-over-year profit growth. Canada's central bank holds rates Wednesday at 2.25%, while South Korea's central bank meets Thursday and is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.