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US-Iran Ceasefire Seen Fragile: Polymarket 14-Day No-Strike Contract Dumps to 53% Today

Prediction Market

2026-07-28 22:52:00

POLYMARKET0.95%

According to Polymarket, the U.S. ceasefire with Iran announced yesterday faces significant market skepticism, with a contract requiring a continuous 14-day period without direct airstrikes or missile strikes on Iranian territory falling from over 60% to around 53% today. The drop reflects trader concerns about durability; a ceasefire represents sustained peace, not merely a temporary pause. The U.S. and Iran held fire for a third day by Monday after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, but President Trump told Axios he was ready to resume "very strong military action" if diplomacy fails.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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