Bitcoin rebounded sharply to $61,362 on July 3, with the direct trigger being the June nonfarm payroll report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) far below expectations: June added only 57,000 jobs, well below the market estimate of 110,000. After the report, the CME FedWatch tool showed the market's probability of a September rate hike dropped from 66% before the release to about 51%.
June Nonfarm Payroll Data and Revisions: All Three Figures Miss Expectations
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on July 3, 2026, the key June nonfarm payroll figures are as follows:
June job additions: 57,000, well below the market estimate of 110,000 to 114,000
May data revision: Revised from 172,000 to 129,000, downward by 43,000
April data revision: Revised from 179,000 to 148,000, downward by 31,000
June unemployment rate: 4.2%, down slightly from 4.3% in May. The BLS official statement noted that the number of unemployed, about 7.1 million, was little changed, and the decline in the unemployment rate was mainly due to a drop in the labor force participation rate
Fed September Rate Hike Probability: Plunged from 80% to 51% Before and After NFP
The CME FedWatch tool showed that the market's probability of a September rate hike was as high as 80% on Tuesday this week, 66% before the NFP data release, and dropped to about 51% after the release.
Fed Chair Walsh stated at the ECB Central Banking Forum in Sintra that the Fed would not provide "forward guidance" and that future decisions would be based on the latest economic data. He also said that inflation expectations and the risk of rising inflation have declined in recent weeks. The market interpreted this statement as easing concerns about further aggressive monetary tightening.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.55% to 100.85 on the day, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note stood at 4.483%.
Bitcoin 24-Hour Short Liquidations Over $450 Million and Order Book Data
(Source: Coinglass)
According to CoinGlass data, as of press time, the total cryptocurrency short liquidations in the past 24 hours reached nearly $450 million. Commentator Exitpump analyzed the Binance futures order book and noted, "The price breaking through large sell orders on the Binance futures order book is actually a signal of strength, and the chasing buy orders also support positive buyers," and stated, "Buyers are back, and the momentum is strong."
Bloomberg analyst Michaël van de Poppe said on X, "Inflation expectations have fallen, and now the unemployment rate is also falling, currently at its lowest level in nearly a year. These are strong public signals about the direction of the market." He personally analyzed that if Bitcoin can clearly break above $65,000, the trend will be more certain. However, the above is the analyst's personal view.
Analyst Rekt Capital described this rebound on X as "Welcome to Green July" and analyzed that according to the historical comparison structure of the 21-month and 50-month EMAs, after the July rebound, the bear market momentum may resume in August. The above technical analysis is his personal view; official market data should be the reference.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin rebound sharply on July 3, 2026?
According to market reports, the direct trigger was the U.S. June nonfarm payroll data missing expectations (adding 57,000, well below the expected 110,000), causing the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to drop from 66% to about 51%, and the US Dollar Index fell 0.55% to 100.85 on the day. Expectations of a looser monetary environment rose, driving a rebound in risk assets including Bitcoin.
What is the impact of the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll data on Fed policy?
According to the CME FedWatch tool, after the June NFP data release, the market's probability of a September rate hike fell from 66% before the release to about 51%, and was as high as 80% on Tuesday this week. Fed Chair Walsh stated at the Sintra forum that the Fed will make decisions based on the latest data and noted that inflation expectations and the risk of rising inflation have declined in recent weeks. Specific policy decisions are subject to official Fed announcements.
What is the scale of short liquidations in this Bitcoin rebound?
According to CoinGlass data, as of press time, the total cryptocurrency short liquidations in the past 24 hours reached nearly $450 million. Commentator Exitpump's order book analysis showed that Binance futures buying momentum was relatively strong in this rebound.
