CLARITY Act Revised Draft Released This Week Lacks Ethics Provision, Passage Odds Slip to 50-50

A revised CLARITY Act draft merging Senate Banking Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee bills is expected this week, adding roughly 70 pages to the legislation. However, the ethics provision Senate Democrats have made a precondition for their votes is not included, complicating efforts to secure the seven Democratic votes needed to clear the 60-vote Senate threshold before the August recess.

Galaxy Research has revised its 2026 passage odds down from 75% to roughly 50-50 following the draft release. Prediction markets currently show approximately 37% odds of passage before August, reflecting both the compressed timeline and the substantive impasse over ethics language. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated he intends to bring the bill to the floor in July, with the weeks of July 20 and July 27 under active discussion as the final viable legislative window before the midterm campaign cycle.