Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75%, Powell's Final Speech May Signal Future Cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its April interest rate decision on April 29th. Markets are pricing in approximately a 100% probability that rates remain unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, according to CME FedWatch and prediction markets Polymarket, making the actual decision largely a formality. The key catalyst will be Jerome Powell's press conference and comments on future rate cuts, as his term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, 2026.

Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady

No significant rate cut is anticipated on April 29th. If rates remain unchanged, it would mark the third consecutive pause in 2026. The primary reason is that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. According to the latest CPI data, the annual inflation rate jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, the highest level since 2024, driven by geopolitical instability and rising energy costs. While job growth has slowed, unemployment remains low and economic growth continues.

Powell's Final Speech as Fed Chair

Even with rates staying unchanged, Powell's press conference will be closely scrutinized by traders and market participants. Traders will focus on three key points: whether Powell hints at a future rate cut later in 2026, whether inflation remains the primary concern, and whether he addresses global tensions and oil prices. Powell has previously stated that his primary goal is to hand over the economy in "good shape" to the next Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting he may maintain a cautious stance. President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell once his term concludes.

Rate Cut Probability in 2026

While a rate cut is still possible in 2026, the odds have weakened significantly in recent weeks. At the beginning of 2026, markets priced in 2 to 3 potential rate cuts; this has now decreased to 0 or 1, dependent on inflation data. However, major institutional investors including J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley still see the possibility of one or two cuts later in 2026.

Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Markets

Bitcoin's price action suggests that market expectations matter more than actual Federal Reserve decisions. Bitcoin rose after only 1 of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, indicating that positive news from Powell's speech could lead to a decline if already priced into the market. As of the article's writing, Bitcoin is trading near $76,532 and testing a key range between $79,000 and $83,000. A breakout from this range could push Bitcoin toward $90,000. Softer signals from the Fed or lower inflation data could support higher Bitcoin prices, while stronger economic data may cause short-term downward pressure.