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Fed Shifts Hawkish, Projects 3.8% 2026 Rates; December Rate Hike Probability Climbs to 77% on June 23

GateNews
Forex
According to Wintermute analysis reported by BlockBeats, on June 23, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% while signaling a hawkish shift. The latest dot plot reversed course from suggesting rate cuts to implying increases, with the median 2026 rate projection rising to 3.8% from 3.4%. Among 18 officials, nine expect at least one rate hike this year, and 17 view inflation risks tilted toward the upside. Market expectations adjusted accordingly, with the probability of a December rate hike rising from 24% a month ago to 77%, indicating the Fed is refocusing anti-inflation efforts at the core of policy. Separately, an Iran deal scheduled for June 19 stalled after Israel's strike on southern Lebanon prompted Iran to exit negotiations. Cryptocurrency markets repriced risk accordingly, though ETF and institutional inflows remain subdued. Market focus will shift toward U.S. PCE data and Middle East developments.
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Market Whisper9h ago

Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%–3.75% as Warsh Prioritizes 2% Inflation Target

Lucas Bennett20h ago

FOMC dot plot: March vs June—how will the market reprice after the number of rate cuts dropped from 12 to 9 hikes?

Gate Instant Trends06-22 07:57
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