Sports betting analytics firm H2 Gambling Capital’s latest estimate says that during the first month of the 2026 World Cup, prediction market activity accounted for 27% of all legal sports betting volume in the United States—up from just 9% earlier this year. When converted into a growth multiple, that share expanded by more than 3x within just a few months. The U.S. sports betting market reached total handle of about $34 billion in 2025.
H2 Gambling Capital: Inflow to prediction market platforms in the 2026 World Cup’s first month
In its latest report, H2 Gambling Capital estimates that during the first month of the 2026 World Cup, 27% of legal U.S. sports betting flowed to prediction market platforms, versus a baseline figure of 9% at the start of the year. The magnitude of this change implies that prediction markets have achieved more than 3x growth in under a year. H2 Gambling Capital also cautions that prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks differ in how they calculate “activity volume,” and that traditional sports bookmakers have not yet released the latest internal data; therefore, the 27% figure should be treated as an approximation rather than an exact statistic.
Using the U.S. sports betting market size of about $34 billion in 2025 as a reference, a 27% share translates to roughly $9 billion potentially flowing to prediction market platforms.
Trading scale during the World Cup: about 6,000 event contract targets per day
In a report released in June 2026, Bernstein predicted that the World Cup would bring prediction markets trading volumes in the “hundreds of millions” of dollars range, and named Kalshi, Polymarket, and Sportify as the three major beneficiary platforms. The report notes that during the World Cup period, there are on average about 1,200 matches per day. For each match, an average of 5 tradable event contracts can be derived (including outcomes, goals, scores, and so on). Over the entire tournament, it estimates that approximately 6,000 distinct tradable targets could be created—far exceeding the number of markets provided by traditional bookmakers.
The trading mechanism of prediction markets is fundamentally different from traditional sports betting:
Two-way trading: build positions on both “Yes” and “No” simultaneously
Enter and exit anytime: no need to hold until the end of the event
Price transparency: contract prices reflect the market’s probability estimate in real time
Composability: multiple contracts can be combined into strategy portfolios
Two platforms driving growth: Kalshi U.S. sports contracts and Polymarket World Cup event markets
This share growth is mainly driven by two platforms: Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi focuses on U.S. sports contracts, covering events such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Polymarket focuses on World Cup and football events, and is also active in political prediction markets such as the CLARITY Act, indicating that the platform is expanding from sports events into broader event contracts.
For users accustomed to cryptocurrency trading, the operational logic of prediction markets is close to on-chain trading, creating a natural migration path for users.
North Carolina imposes a 6% tax on prediction market transactions in July, the first case in the U.S.
North Carolina will be the first state in the U.S. to impose a 6% tax rate on transactions related to prediction markets starting in July 2026. In substance, the legislation recognizes the legality of transaction activity in prediction markets by federal commodity trading advisors (FCMs), and provides other states with a reference precedent for a regulatory framework. At present, no specific timelines for other states to follow have been announced; the official legislative announcements from each state will prevail.
FAQ
Is the 27% figure estimated by H2 Gambling Capital an exact statistic?
H2 Gambling Capital explicitly reminds in its report that the number should be treated as an approximation rather than an exact statistic, due to factors including: prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks do not calculate “activity volume” in exactly the same way, and traditional sports bookmakers have not yet published the latest internal data.
How much trading volume does Bernstein expect prediction markets to generate during the World Cup?
Bernstein’s June 2026 report predicts that the World Cup will bring trading volumes in the hundreds of millions of dollars range to prediction markets. The report estimates that over the full tournament, about 6,000 distinct tradable targets can be created, with the main beneficiary platforms being Kalshi, Polymarket, and Sportify.
What is the prediction market tax rate in North Carolina, and what does it mean?
North Carolina imposes a 6% tax rate on prediction markets starting in July 2026, making it the first U.S. state to enact such legislation. In substance, this measure recognizes the transaction rights of federal commodity trading advisors in prediction markets and provides a precedent for other states’ regulatory frameworks, though no timeline for other states to follow has been announced.
