Forbes reported on June 23 that with just 11 days until the World Cup kicked off, major prediction markets have already accumulated betting volumes of tens of billions of dollars. Kalshi said on its own that the World Cup trading volume has reached $290 million (including parlay bets). According to insiders, since Polymarket launched its World Cup product in July last year, the cumulative trading volume for the World Cup has reached $250 million.
Kalshi’s report: World Cup trading volume hits $290 million, surpassing “March Madness” and the Champions League
Based on data from major prediction markets collected by Forbes as of Thursday, Kalshi showed the largest growth in numbers. The platform said on its own that the World Cup trading volume reached $290 million (including parlay bets), surpassing the following historical figures: “March Madness” (NCAA men’s basketball tournament) at $25.1 million; this season’s UEFA Champions League at $68.5 million. Polymarket’s $250 million figure for World Cup trading volume comes from insiders, not an official Polymarket disclosure.
Polymarket’s World Cup cumulative $250 million: over $500 million in transactions on a global football DeFi platform
According to insiders cited by Forbes, since Polymarket launched its World Cup markets in July 2025, the cumulative trading volume has reached $250 million, making it one of the largest single markets in the platform’s history. In the same period, on its global decentralized finance platform, transactions related to football also exceeded $500 million. Polymarket did not issue any public statement to Forbes on this matter, and the figures come from anonymous insiders.
Polymarket’s $9 million winning bet: a new wallet staked $4 million, sparking insider-trading allegations
Forbes reported two striking cases: in the Portugal vs. Congo match, Polymarket user “BreakTheBank” placed a bet of nearly $300,000 that Portugal would not win; the user ultimately profited nearly $1 million. In another case, a newly created wallet placed a $4 million bet on the same platform that Spain would not beat the Bahamas (Congo/“佛得角”); it ultimately won about $9 million, sparking public questions about whether the trade was just luck or based on non-public information.
Forbes noted that such trades intensify concerns about insider trading on prediction platforms, and that the U.S. currently still has an ongoing debate between the CFTC and state governments over whether these products are more like financial instruments or illegal gambling.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Kalshi’s $290 million World Cup trading volume self-reported or based on third-party data?
According to Forbes, the $290 million figure (including parlay bets) is a number self-reported by the Kalshi platform. Forbes said it collected data from major prediction markets as of Thursday; the $290 million is platform data provided to Forbes by Kalshi, not a number from third-party independent verification.
What is the source of Polymarket’s $250 million World Cup trading volume?
Based on Forbes’ reporting, the $250 million figure is a number revealed by “a source familiar with the matter,” and Polymarket has not officially confirmed it. This is information provided by an anonymous source, and as of the time of the report, Polymarket had not made an official statement regarding it.
Does the $9 million winning bet in the Spain 0-0 draw vs. the Bahamas (Congo/“佛得角”) involve insider trading?
According to Forbes, the public has questions about this case, wondering whether the bet was just luck or based on non-public information, but the report provided no records of investigation results or law-enforcement actions. Forbes pointed out that such trades heighten industry concerns about insider-trading issues on prediction platforms, and regulatory disputes are still ongoing.
