Polymarket Bettors Assign 54% Odds to 2026 Fed Rate Hike After Warsh's Debut

According to Polymarket, on July 1, 2026, bettors assigned 54% odds to a Federal Reserve rate hike occurring in 2026, following new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the ECB's annual Forum on Central Banking. Warsh stated that inflation expectations and risks have eased during his first four weeks, but signaled the Fed remains committed to price stability, saying prices are too high. The market has drawn over $3.2 million in trading volume.

On Kalshi, traders priced a 77% chance of a hike before 2028 and 66% before July 2027, with over $3.1 million in volume traded. Bitcoin climbed near $60,000 following Warsh's remarks, gaining roughly 2-3% on the day.