BTC drops sharply by 0.47% in 15 minutes: The U.S.-Iran conflict escalates alongside rate-hike expectations, weighing on the market

July 20, 2026, 06:30–06:45 (UTC): Within 15 minutes, BTC fell 0.47%, with the price dropping into the 63,770.5–64,148.7 USDT range. Ampl was 0.59%, and risk-avoidance sentiment noticeably intensified.

The main drivers behind this move are the continued escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The US carried out its ninth consecutive overnight military strike against Iran, with targets expanding to infrastructure such as highways, tunnels, railways, and ports. The conflict has widened to a seven-country scope. A former NATO commander warned that the Suez Canal could become the next target; rising risks to global trade routes have further heightened market concerns. After at least two US soldiers were killed in Jordan, US forces launched retaliatory strikes. Geopolitical uncertainty has pushed capital out of risk assets.

Meanwhile, expectations for the Fed to raise rates have surged quickly. Signals for rate hikes were issued by multiple officials, including Cleveland Fed Chair Hammack. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 82% probability of a rate hike in December. Brent crude oil broke above $90 per barrel, further reinforcing inflation expectations. A rising US dollar appeal has created valuation pressure on non-yielding assets such as BTC. Technically, the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, indicating that the medium- to short-term structure has not yet been broken and that the current pullback is a normal retest within an ongoing uptrend. However, order-book depth is extremely thin: the buy/sell depth ratio is only 0.27. A large sell wall has been placed at $64,160 for 0.3938 BTC, accounting for 93.8% of the total volume across the top 5 levels—meaning resistance to a short-term rebound is likely.

What to watch next: whether the US-Iran conflict escalates further, the interest-rate signals stemming from Fed officials’ remarks, and whether the $64,080 support level holds.