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Fed Rate Hike Probability Surges to 46.5% as Trump Blockade Sends Oil to $75 Barrel

Commodities Forex Indices

2026-07-14 02:13:38

CME2.00%

According to CME FedWatch tool, as of July 13, the Federal Reserve's probability of raising rates by 25 basis points at its July 29 meeting surged to 46.5%, up from 34% the previous day. The shift reflects growing market concerns over renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and rising oil prices. President Trump announced the restoration of a blockade on Iranian ports and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, along with a 20% toll on all cargo passing through. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped more than 5% intraday, briefly breaking $75 per barrel. Fed official Christopher Waller warned against repeating the 2021-2022 mistake of underestimating inflation, stating the central bank may need to resume rate hikes if price pressures persist.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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