ARK Invest co-founder Cathie Wood said on the July 3 monthly program "In The Know" that the recession signals in the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report mainly stem from distorted statistical data rather than problems with the U.S. economy itself; on the same day, ARK Invest bought nearly $18 million worth of Circle stock.
June Nonfarm Payrolls Added Only 57,000, Less Than Half of the Expected 115,000
According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 2, 2026, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, about half of the market expectation of 115,000; April and May employment data were also revised down by a combined 74,000; household employment fell by about 500,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%.
Cathie Wood said: "If you only look at this employment report, you would think the U.S. has already fallen into recession." But she stressed that the real problem is not the U.S. economy, but the statistical data used to measure the economy, which may itself be biased.
Trueflation Real-Time Inflation Rate at 1.75%, Below Official CPI of 4.2%
According to data from the Trueflation real-time inflation platform cited by Wood on the program, the current overall U.S. inflation rate is 1.75%, less than half of the official CPI of 4.2%; Trueflation calculates inflation using real-time price data on over 400,000 items, offering higher update frequency and broader coverage compared to the official CPI's monthly sample survey, and the Trueflation real-time dashboard has shown inflation below the 2% target for several consecutive months.
Wood said: "This means the 10-year Treasury yield could move further down." She compared the current behavior of the yield curve to that during the Industrial Revolution, arguing that the market is sniffing out deflation risk ahead of time.
Fed Chair Warsh's Five Reform Priorities: Introduce Private-Sector Data to Cross-Verify Government Statistics
According to Wood's introduction on the program, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's five working groups will review the following areas of the Fed from a "first principles" perspective:
Communication methods: Reduce market noise caused by frequent public remarks by Fed officials
Data sources: Use private-sector data to cross-verify potentially biased government statistics
Inflation monitoring: Re-evaluate inflation calculation methods and the credibility of real-time data
AI's impact on the economy: Assess the long-term effects of artificial intelligence on productivity and prices
Path to reduce the $67 trillion balance sheet: Scrutinize the exit strategy for the Fed's massive balance sheet
According to CNBC, Warsh is the first Fed chair in recent years to launch such a comprehensive policy review.
ARK Invest Bought Nearly $18 Million in Circle Stock on July 3
According to reports, ARK Invest bought nearly $18 million worth of Circle stock on July 3, 2026 (the same day Wood made the above remarks).
Circle is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin. The purchase comes amid recent significant volatility in Circle's stock; ARK's increase in holdings shows that Wood still maintains an active capital allocation stance toward crypto-related assets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What problem does Cathie Wood believe the June nonfarm payrolls report reflects?
According to Wood's remarks on the program "In The Know," the recession signals in the June nonfarm payrolls report mainly reflect distorted statistical data rather than problems with the U.S. economy itself. She noted that June added only 57,000 jobs, about half of market expectations, but this deviation stems from statistical methods, not actual labor market deterioration.
How does the inflation rate shown by Trueflation differ from the official CPI?
According to data cited by Wood, the Trueflation real-time inflation platform shows the current U.S. inflation rate at 1.75%, below the official CPI of 4.2%; Trueflation uses real-time price data on over 400,000 items, with higher update frequency than the official CPI's monthly sample survey.
What stock did ARK Invest buy on July 3, and for how much?
According to reports, ARK Invest bought nearly $18 million worth of Circle stock on July 3, 2026; Circle is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin.
